Trump Endorsement CRUSHED in Shocking Vote Upset

A first-time Democratic candidate just flipped a Texas state senate seat that Republicans held for three decades in a district where Donald Trump won by 17 points barely a year ago.

Story Snapshot

Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57% to 43% in Texas State Senate District 9 special election runoff on February 1, 2026
Trump personally endorsed Wambsganss and she vastly outspent Rehmet, yet still lost by 14 percentage points in a district Trump carried by 17 points
The seat had been held by Republicans for over 30 years before machinist union leader Rehmet’s stunning upset victory
Both candidates will face off again in November 2026 for a full four-year term, setting up a rematch with national implications

When Money and Trump’s Blessing Aren’t Enough

Republican Leigh Wambsganss had every advantage heading into the February 1 runoff. She outspent her opponent by a wide margin. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick mounted a furious last-minute funding push on her behalf. President Trump took to his social media platform on election day itself, calling Wambsganss “a successful entrepreneur” and praising her as an “incredible supporter” of his Make America Great Again movement. None of it mattered. Taylor Rehmet, a machinist union leader running her first campaign, won with 57% of the vote.

The Numbers That Should Terrify Republicans

Texas State Senate District 9 isn’t some purple swing district that changes hands with the political winds. This is deep red territory. Trump won it by 17 points in 2024. Republicans held the seat for decades, with four-term incumbent Kelly Hancock easily winning reelection every time he ran. When Hancock resigned in March 2025 to become Texas’s acting comptroller, Republicans assumed they’d keep the seat without breaking a sweat. The November 2025 special election provided the first warning sign when Rehmet captured 47% of the vote, nearly winning outright and forcing the runoff.

A Pattern Democrats Will Exploit Mercilessly

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin wasted no time framing the victory as evidence of a larger trend. He called the result “a warning sign to Republicans across the country” and declared it “further evidence that voters under the second Trump administration are motivated to reject GOP candidates and their policies.” Democrats have been overperforming in special elections throughout this cycle, and Martin’s interpretation aims to turn isolated results into a narrative of voter rejection. Whether that narrative holds depends on factors Democrats conveniently ignore, like the dramatically lower turnout in this runoff compared to the November election.

Tarrant County’s Shifting Ground

The result reveals uncomfortable truths about suburban voter dynamics in Texas. Tarrant County, which encompasses District 9, has been sliding away from Republicans. Joe Biden carried the county by approximately 1,800 votes out of more than 834,000 cast in 2020. Trump won it back by 5 points in 2024, but that margin suggests weakness compared to his 17-point advantage in the specific senate district. Suburban voters in areas like Tarrant County appear increasingly willing to split tickets or abandon Republican candidates entirely, particularly in lower-turnout special elections where motivated opposition can overwhelm traditional party loyalty.

What Went Wrong for Republicans

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick’s pre-election plea to Tarrant County Republicans reveals GOP leaders recognized the danger. His statement “I’m very concerned about this election” wasn’t typical political theater. Republicans understood they faced potential disaster yet couldn’t prevent it despite superior resources and Trump’s personal involvement. The loss raises questions about whether Trump endorsements retain their power to mobilize Republican voters or whether they’ve become liabilities in suburban districts where voters increasingly view Trump-aligned candidates as too extreme. Wambsganss ran as a conservative activist with full MAGA credentials, exactly the profile that should win in a district Trump dominated.

The Rematch Nobody Wanted

Rehmet will serve only 11 months of Hancock’s remaining term before facing Wambsganss again in November 2026 for a full four-year term. Neither candidate faces primary opposition in March, guaranteeing the rematch. The November contest will attract significantly more attention and funding from both parties. Republicans will view it as essential to reclaim a seat they should never have lost. Democrats will fight to prove the February result wasn’t a fluke driven by low special election turnout. National party organizations will pour resources into a race that becomes a referendum on whether suburban Texas is genuinely shifting or whether Republicans simply failed to turn out their voters in a forgettable runoff.

Reading the Tea Leaves for 2026

Republicans face a choice in interpreting this loss. They can dismiss it as an anomaly driven by low turnout, candidate quality issues, or insufficient attention to a race they assumed was safe. Alternatively, they can treat it as evidence of fundamental problems with their message and strategy in suburban districts, even deep red ones. The pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections during Trump’s second administration suggests structural issues beyond any single race. Voters in traditionally Republican districts crossing party lines to elect Democrats indicates either profound dissatisfaction with GOP governance or successful Democratic messaging about Republican extremism, possibly both.